What is going to happen Tuesday? Who’s going to win? These are the questions people are asking. The answer lies in what happens in the next 6 days. If we work our butts off across the country the result will be better for the Dems. If we let Republican attempts to suppress our voters go unanswered, the Republicans will do better. Getting out the Democrats to vote in the next 6 days is ALL that matters. It’s everything.
But to answer the big question….first, some background on what is happening in the U.S. this election cycle.
Republicans, as they have always been, are 100% in on suppressing votes. What is voter suppression?
Attempts to: 1. Prevent people from registering 2. Prevent people from voting 3. Prevent people’s votes from counting.
Republicans are doing all these things. Why? Because they are in the minority and can’t win if we all vote. Don’t ever forget that. They MUST suppress votes to win. Some of the ways they do it are gerrymandering (not having your vote count), preventing ex-felons from registering (FL) or having a long, difficult voter registration process (TX), and intimidating voters at polling places (AZ) (preventing you from voting).
Aside from surrounding drop boxes in Arizona with a bunch of militia guys, the other new thing they are doing this year is trying to make you believe they are winning so Democrats are too discouraged to vote and volunteer. What have they done this year to discourage us? They have flooded us with Republican-biased polls that skew the averages on places like Real Clear Politics and 538 (where journalists go to get their info). The result? We have seen “polls tighten,” and the national media has picked up on this, and we’ve seen reporter after reporter write a story about how Dems have lost momentum and Republicans have it. This discourages Dems from volunteering and voting. And it’s at a critical time…the last week!! But the other reason they are doing it is because they will be able to say the polls were saying Republicans were going to win, but Dems won, so it is fraud. They are setting up another round of election denying to anger their supporters.
Why are reporters doing this? Because historically, the party in power loses the midterms. When they see polls “tighten” or Dems “fall behind,” it is just evidence of what the historical norm is, and they are not going out on a limb to report this.
But there is a lot of evidence that this isn’t happening. McConnell is spending big in Ohio and North Carolina in this last week. That is not indicative of a red wave. That is turf protection. That is defense. Trump is going to Iowa to prop of Grassley. That is not offense, that is defense in a big way. We also have data from every special election since Roe was overturned, where the Dems beat the polls by over 6 points. We also have the Kansas abortion result, where pro-choice won in very conservative Kansas. And early voting is favoring Democrats MORE than it did in 2018 and 2020…which were two elections WE won! Voter registration for Dems has outpaced Republican registration for the last 23 weeks (since Roe, basically). We are winning where it counts, but we can’t stop working.
Let’s frame expectations, though. Since FDR’s 2nd term in 1938, only 3 presidents haven’t lost seats in the house: JFK, Clinton (after Republican overreach on his affair), and George Bush Jr. (after 9/11). Every single other one lost seats. Obama lost 63 seats in the house in his first midterm, 13 in his second, and Trump lost 40 in his. So that is the expectation unless something weird happens. And we don’t have a big majority in the house to lose this time.
What does “winning” look like in a mid-term? Most Democratic experts would be celebrating if we didn’t lose the senate and gained a governor or two. That would be a very strong showing. The objective needs to be to hold on to as much as you can until 2024 and, in 2024, win it all back and then some.
Is this what happens? Will Biden win? Historically the answer is a resounding yes! Especially if we quit passing on the Republican talking point that he is too old. His administration’s incredible competency should put that to rest. Presidents who run for reelection and generally win. Since Hoover lost reelection in 1932 (the Great Depression), FDR won three more terms, Truman and Eisenhower were reelected, Kennedy died, and Johnson won a 2nd term technically if you count his taking over for Kennedy his first term and didn't run again, Nixon was reelected. Gerald Ford was not elected, so he couldn't be reelected. Jimmy Carter in 1980, became the first president in 48 years who did not win reelection (hostage crisis and stagflation). Reagan won reelection. George Bush Sr. became the 2nd president not reelected since 1932 because "it's the economy stupid". Clinton won twice. Bush Jr. won twice. Obama won twice. Then Trump became the 3rd guy because of his utter incompetence and criminality as he lost with a booming economy.
What will happen on Nov. 8th, 2022? We don’t know yet. There is no evidence of a Red Wave coming other than a bunch of biased Republican-leaning and funded polls flooding the media. Is there evidence on the Dem's side? Yes, early voting, special elections, Democratic voter registration levels, and the Kansas vote. The evidence saying the Dems will do better than history would tell us is HARD evidence that can’t be manipulated.
Personally, I think there is enough evidence out there to say that we will hold the Senate and pick up a governor or two. The house is much harder to predict because it depends on what happens in the next 6 days. So far, Republicans haven’t turned out, but that is the new norm. But are they going to turn out on election day? We simply have no idea, but we do know that we can get the Dems to turn out between now and then, and there are more of us than there are of them.
If we do lose the house, however, we just get back to work to make 2024 a big Dem election where we win the presidency and sweep up lots of house and senate seats (which likely will happen). If we don’t lose the house, they everyone needs to be dancing in the streets.
I strongly believe we will be fine in Colorado. Just remember, politics is a marathon, not a sprint. The world is under threat. We have autocracy vs. democracy. The fight is global. But Lula de Silva just took back Brazil, and Ukraine is, beyond all odds, beating Russia. But then we take a step back with Netanyahu. And we have control of the presidency, the house, and the Senate. Also, remember where we were in 2017. We controlled nothing. We are slowly gaining back lots of territories. The Republicans are scared, so they are resorting to cheating through election denialism, voter suppression, etc.
We can win this thing. It depends on everything we do this week.
Canvass for Dr. Yadira Caraveo and other Dems in the new CD8. Here’s info from the coordinated campaign on how to do that:
Online Canvass Training: TONIGHT Thursday 11/3 at 6pm https://us06web.zoom.us/j/8415004701?pwd=QVNSZVY1OStXclJJSHltWTN5dGNRdz09 Sign up for shifts: Commerce City - https://mobilize.us/s/PxomJ8 Greeley - https://mobilize.us/s/iVzXCI Brighton - https://mobilize.us/s/ehOELZ
Hugs, Kris Moe