Why does the party in power lose seats in midterms?
Updated: Sep 10, 2022
1. The opposition is energized
· Even more so if the party in power successfully implements their agenda
· They “nationalize” local elections
2. The party in power isn’t as engaged...APATHY
· They won so there is no need to turnout
· The President can’t keep all his promises
· They are alienated by the President’s choices
3. Midterms are a more partisan, older electorate
4. Voters go to the polls when they are angry or afraid, not when they are satisfied
1. They are low turnout elections (no low-frequency voters nor independents)
2. They lose seats even if they successfully implemented their agenda
Fun Facts:
1. The President’s Party has only gained seats (and only a few) in the House AND Senate twice: 1934 (FDR/Depression) and 2002 (Bush/911). In 1998 Clinton gained 5 house seats and didn’t lose any senate ones. So only 3 times has the President gained seats. Four other times the President gained senate seats and lost house seats.
2. Average loss of house and senate seats is 30.
3. "The stronger the presidential victory margin or, the more seats won in the presidential year and therefore 'at risk,' the greater will be the subsequent midterm seat loss."
4. Every 2 years, 1/3 of the senate seats are up, and all house seats are up.
5. The worst mid-term losses are usually in the first midterm, not the second one.
6. In 2018, Trump lost 41 house seats and gained 2 senate seats.
7. In 2010, Obama lost 63 house seats and 6 senate seats.
8. In 2006, Bush lost 30 house seats and 6 senate seats.
9. In 1994, Clinton lost 52 house and 8 senate seats.
10. In 2022, we will be fighting for redistricted seats (from a crappy census).
11. In 2020, Democrats lost 11 house seats and gained 3 senate seats
Year | President | Party | House | Senate | Total |
1934 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 | Franklin D. Roosevelt Franklin D. Roosevelt Franklin D. Roosevelt Harry S. Truman Harry S. Truman Dwight D. Eisenhower Dwight D. Eisenhower John F. Kennedy Lyndon B. Johnson Richard Nixon Gerald R. Ford Jimmy Carter Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan George Bush William J. Clinton William J. Clinton George W. Bush George W. Bush Barack Obama Barack Obama Donald Trump | D D D D D R R D D R R D R R R D D R R D D R | +9 -71 -55 -45 -29 -18 -48 -4 -47 -12 -48 -15 -26 -5 -8 -52 +5 +8 -30 -63 -13 -41 | +9 -6 -9 -12 -6 -1 -13 +3 -4 +2 -5 -3 +1 -8 -1 -8 0 +2 -6 -6 -9 +2 | +18 -77 -64 -57 -35 -19 -61 -1 -51 -10 -63 -18 -25 -13 -9 -60 +5 +10 -36 -69 -21 -39 |
There will be losses, the question is what the size will be. It will depend on:
· Economic Conditions
· Presidential Popularity
· Strength of the Withdrawn Presidential Coattails
Two Theories
1. Current conditions affect vote…popularity of President, economic conditions
2. Coattails cause surge in presidential election and this declines in mid-term…why first midterm is more affected. The stronger the showing in the Presidential election, the stronger the coattails, the bigger the decline.
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